The numbers for Romney are firming up quite nicely and more solidly than the media is telling us. The media wants to make it sound really close to keep the suspense up so people will keep watching their coverage. I'm not saying there's no suspense left, the election is still very close. But the trends have been breaking solidly in Romney's direction over the last two weeks, across multiple demographic categories.
The table below gives you a look at some in-depth polling information from Rasmussen. It's from Rasmussen's Daily Swing State Tracking Poll for September 6, 2012. Take a careful look at these numbers and you'll see some very interesting developments.
Their overall numbers show Romney up by 4 points in the swing states. This is the highest he's been up. To give you an idea, on August 27th, Obama was up by 4 (48%-44%). He then began steadily losing one point every few days. They were dead even on September 1st and now Romney is up by 4 (49%-45% if you include "leaners"). And this poll was taken after the first day of the Democrat National Convention.
Take a closer look at these numbers and you'll see some very interesting things.
First, look at the percentage of Democrats who are either "certain" Romney, "likely" Romney or "lean" Romney. A total of 13% of Democrats fall into one of those categories.
Then look at the number of Republicans who fall into those respective categories for Obama. It only comes to 6%. So at this point more than twice as many Democrats are seriously considering voting for Romney than Republicans who are considering voting for Obama.
These same ratios play out with moderates and liberals. Two and a half times as many moderates are considering voting for Romney (40%) as conservatives who are thinking of voting for Obama. Only 16% of conservatives are considering a vote for Obama. You might ask who these conservatives are - or what kind of conservatives are they - but the key point is that far fewer people who self-identify as conservatives are considering a vote for Obama than moderates who are considering a vote for Romney.
The significance of these numbers is that they show firm underlying and building support for Romney across many categories. Even women are slowly climbing aboard the Romney bandwagon. If the numbers continue to break this way across all these categories, Romney will be looking at a very solid win in November.
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