NY-20 (Leans D, from Likely D) : If you thought a two-year term makes for perpetual congressional campaigns, imagine yourself in Democrat Scott Murphy ’s shoes. Elected in a special election on the last day of March 2009, he will be on the ballot again just four months from now. After winning by about 700 votes, he could not afford even a moment to bask in the victory. While Obama carried this Hudson Valley district by 3% in 2008, it is hardly Democratic territory. Bush won here in both 2000 and 2004, a rare Republican feat for New York, and the district’s Republican roots stretch back to the Civil War. Kirsten Gillibrand upset all that with her 2006 victory over Republican John Sweeney, a longtime representative who was damaged by a series of controversies. Gillibrand, of course, was later appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat, necessitating a special election. Over that three-month campaign, the NRCC targeted Murphy heavily, but many of their attacks seem to backfire leading to a razor-thin victory for the Democrat. Fast forward to 2010 and the NRCC is committed to making up for last year’s missed opportunity. They are pinning their hopes on retired Army Colonel Chris Gibson who entered the race late and will have a lot of fundraising ground to make up. Still, the Republican history here and significant Republican voter registration advantage, now coupled with a credible candidate, moves this race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic .
NY-20 (Leans D, from Likely D) : If you thought a two-year term makes for perpetual congressional campaigns, imagine yourself in Democrat Scott Murphy ’s shoes. Elected in a special election on the last day of March 2009, he will be on the ballot again just four months from now. After winning by about 700 votes, he could not afford even a moment to bask in the victory. While Obama carried this Hudson Valley district by 3% in 2008, it is hardly Democratic territory. Bush won here in both 2000 and 2004, a rare Republican feat for New York, and the district’s Republican roots stretch back to the Civil War. Kirsten Gillibrand upset all that with her 2006 victory over Republican John Sweeney, a longtime representative who was damaged by a series of controversies. Gillibrand, of course, was later appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat, necessitating a special election. Over that three-month campaign, the NRCC targeted Murphy heavily, but many of their attacks seem to backfire leading to a razor-thin victory for the Democrat. Fast forward to 2010 and the NRCC is committed to making up for last year’s missed opportunity. They are pinning their hopes on retired Army Colonel Chris Gibson who entered the race late and will have a lot of fundraising ground to make up. Still, the Republican history here and significant Republican voter registration advantage, now coupled with a credible candidate, moves this race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic .
